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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby Northender on Sat Feb 06, 2010 12:05 pm

The loss of habitat and way of life for people and animals is a big one. Changes in biodiversity, which can further endanger already threatened species is another. Loss of economic opportunties for residents who depend on sea ice for hunting, transportation etc. International competition and potential conflict over access to resources. Other closely related issues, mentioned by Zander, and also erosion to coastal areas, where many small Arctic communities are located.
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby Northender on Sat Feb 06, 2010 1:04 pm

justmythoughts wrote:The Arctic melting ice (which won't raise sea levels)

It's not the melted sea ice that causes expansion, but a warmer ocean that melts the ice also expands causing some sea level rising. You can do this experiment yourself.
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby justmythoughts on Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:51 am

Another blunder by the IPCC contained within it's 2007 report. The report claimed that 55% of Holland is below sea level. The real number is 26%.

Suffice to say the Dutch government are less than impressed with this big mistake.

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2 ... e_pane.php

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... iwWpSxukFg

The only "positive" from these reported errors are that the next report in 2013 should be under proper scrutiny to be as accurate as possible.
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby zander on Mon Feb 08, 2010 10:26 am

justmythoughts wrote:Another blunder by the IPCC contained within it's 2007 report. The report claimed that 55% of Holland is below sea level. The real number is 26%.


Yes, I saw that too. Someone added the figures for the land area of the Netherlands that has been reclaimed from the sea (26%) to the area of the country that is susceptible to river flooding (29%). An embarrasing (but understandable) mistake to be sure. And it points to some lapses in the editing, which should be cleared up for 2013.

But again, it doesn't change the overall picture.

Suffice to say the Dutch government are less than impressed with this big mistake.


Can't say I blame them.

The only "positive" from these reported errors are that the next report in 2013 should be under proper scrutiny to be as accurate as possible.


Indeed, which is as it should be.

But given the size of the IPCC reports, this handful of mistakes (keep in mind that the Amazon statements are essentially true, just sourced from the wrong place) is embarrasing, but it isn't out of proportion to the level of detail in the reports. .

Now I wonder if the skeptics will apply the same level of increased scrutiny to their own work too? ;)

On a related matter, the Norfolk police have apparently identified some leads in the "Climategate" email theft. Turns out that one of the scientists at East Anglia has links to various skeptic blogs - the same ones who released these emails to the public. He's been interviewed by the police and they are now in contact with three of the more prominent skeptic blogs.

And there is some context to the CRU's refusal to fulfill FoI requests. An article in yesterday's Times reports that the research unit received a flood of requests, often for information that is available publicly. At one point they received 40 requests in a matter of days, each one requesting data on five different countries (totalling 200 countries).

UEA policies state that a minimum of 18 hours work is required before an FoI request can be turned down. So with only 13 staff (mostly scientists) this is a virtually impossible task and it would seem that someone(s) was targeting CRU in an effort to slow their work down. Each hour a scientist takes to review an FoI request is an hour that they can't use for other work.

While I still don't agree with CRU staff's refusal to fulfill the requests they received, I do understand how their frustration might drive them to ignore FoI laws. And interestingly enough, given that the majority of the requests were either untraceable or from outside the UK, Jones believes (although without solid proof) that the organizers of the Climate Audit website were behind this.
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby justmythoughts on Mon Feb 08, 2010 12:57 pm

Phil Jones was certainly "feeling the heat". (pardon the pun but I couldn't resist) :)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 018484.ece
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby zander on Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:04 pm

justmythoughts wrote:Phil Jones was certainly "feeling the heat". (pardon the pun but I couldn't resist) :)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 018484.ece


I can only imagine the kind of pressure he's been facing. Death threats wouldn't be a fun experience for anyone. It's a shame that some people have to stoop so low in matters like this.
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby zander on Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:57 pm

There was an interesting piece in yesterday's Guardian. It's a debate (in the form of letters) between the Guardian's science editor and a noted climate change skeptic.

Robin McKie v Benny Peiser

I find it very telling that McKie keeps asking Pieser if he can "demonstrate with the same confidence and transparency that is employed by climate scientists that the world has absolutely nothing to fear". And if so, he asks Pieser to "point to the studies that underpin your argument".

Pieser never answers the question. :shock:
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby justmythoughts on Tue Feb 09, 2010 8:22 am

Controlling carbon is a bureaucrat's dream. If you control carbon you control life.
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby zander on Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:39 am

And a bit of a mystery to follow up:

I try not to link to blogs or opinion sites unless there's no other options. But I think this is too interesting not to post, although I'm going to hold off jumping to any conclusions until this is verified by less partisan sources.

“Independent” critique of Hockey Stick revealed as fatally flawed right-wing anti-science set up

The purportedly independent report that Dr. Edward Wegman prepared in 2006 for the Congressional Committee on Energy and Commerce was actually a partisan set-up, according to information revealed today.

Wegman, who had presented himself as an impartial “referee” between two “teams” debating the quality of the so-called Hockey Stick graph was, in fact, coached throughout his review by Republican staffer Peter Spencer. Wegman and his colleagues also worked closely with one of the teams (and especially with retired mining stock promoter Stephen McIntyre) to try to replicate criticism of the Hockey Stick graph, while at the same time foregoing contact with the actual authors of the seminal climate reconstruction


If true, then the individuals involved in the review and those who worked with them could be found guilty of misleading Congress (a felony in the United States).

And more to the point, the skeptic community and their echo chamber have been accusing scientists of manipulating data to push their own "agenda" (albeit with little proof). Well, here's some real live data manipulation for you to consider. :D

And it would be further vindication for Dr. Mann and his much-maligned hockey stick.
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Re: Climate change worse than we thought

Postby justmythoughts on Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:27 am

Did Wegman receive Mann's original data and try to replicate?

McKitrick & McIntrye asked Mann for his data for the same reason but were rebuked.

Isn't that the mandate of real science to take one's data and try to replicate the results in order to confirm the original analysis?

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/13830/?a=f
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